Technically Speaking, Real Estate Could Move Up
Published May 14, 2017
The SPDR fund tracking the Real Estate Sector (XLRE) has been in a clearly defined upward trend since November 2016. As of the close on May 12, this fund is at the bottom of the cycle which is near a strongly established support. The projected future movements are highlighted below.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 41.0131. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading has the fund relatively neutral although it recently came down from near the overbought level The RSI is currently at a similar level where all the previous bottoms have occurred. This is the first indicator the fund should begin moving up.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 2.6338. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the fund has been moving down, however, it is also near the same level where the previous bottoms in this cycle have been established. The TSI has also been trending up in a bullish wedge pattern. With the indicator around the same support level, this is the second indicator the fund should begin moving up.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8623 and the negative is at 1.1873. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Currently the negative indicator is slowly moving upward which is bearish for the fund. At the same time, the positive indicator has begun to move upward. When the negative indicator finally does reverse downward and the positive makes more strident gains, the fund should be in its upward cycle.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 39.1887 and D value is 41.1774. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is technically in the middle of the oscillation possibilities at the moment. The next 2-5 trading days are pertinent to determine if the actual long-term movement is to the upside.
I have broken down the last three times the fund was near its current point in the trend channel. All three of them resulted in a minimal gain of 3.92% in a minimum of 12 trading days. My current projected movement is on the conservative side, however, the stop-loss will be any movement below 31.24. Movement to this level breaks outside the support level and could lead to major downward movement for the fund.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could gain at least 3% over the next 22 trading days if not sooner.
DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the fund mentioned above. I may enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.