Near-Term Drop For Walgreens

Published May 7, 2017
3:45 AM

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) stock has been in a defined bullish trend since the beginning of 2016. Its current position displays the stock is ready to cycle down. The typical movement occurs over a period of 15 or more trading days.


When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 62.2076. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has is moving down as this indicator recently turned downward when it was near overbought territory. The last two time the stock was at its current RSI level, the stock dropped greater than 7% over the following 32 trading days.

The true strength index (TSI) is currently 11.6581. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is trending upward. This indicator is more indicative of long term trend and it is slow to reverse course.

The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1647 and the negative is at 0.7472. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock was moving up, but this is beginning to weaken and trend downward.

The stochastic oscillator K value is 53.7979 and D value is 63.7308. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock exited overbought territory and should continue to decline.

Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop at least 3.5% over the next 28 trading days.

DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I plan to enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.

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