AT&T Still Falling
Published April 16, 2017
On April 13, 2017, AT&T (T) crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 223 times and the stock does not always drop. It has a median loss of 3.679% and a maximum loss of 21.351% over the next 20 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 32.0245. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending down and could enter oversold territory soon.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -12.2241. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8389 while the negative is at 1.1199. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, but the pace is slowing. Also the positive indicator is beginning to rise meaning price action could slow in the short-term leaving the door open for a price change in either direction.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 14.0197 and D value is 11.0155. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the price action is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is in oversold territory, but it has been flirting around this point since the end of March.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 2% over the next 20 trading days. AT&T has crossed the 150 DMA in three of the last four sessions. The most recent similar flirtations with the 150 DMA have occurred in October 2014, November 2014, February 2015, August 2015, January 2016, and September 2016. The losses were 4.776%, 8.083%, 5.684%, 8.101%1.328%, and 4.355% respectively. This drop could ultimately result in a loss of nearly 4% to the bottom of the macro trend line (thick yellow line) 38.50-38.75 range, but the conservative play is around 39.40.
DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I most likely will not enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.