Bullish PBR Moving Average Cross
Published April 11, 2017
On April 10, 2017, Petrobras (PBR) crossed over its 200 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 47 times and the stock does not always continue to rise. It has a median gain of 5.428% and maximum gain of 22.706% over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 54.9389. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is neutral but has been trending up.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -10.0095. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading, although negative, declares the stock is moving up.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.2281. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving up.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 70.8279 and D value is 80.0101. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock just began a reversal downward.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading up. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could gain another 4.00% over the next 15 trading days.
DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I most likely will not enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.