Sell NVIDIA Now
Published April 5, 2017
On April 4, 2017, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) crossed below the 50 and 100 day moving average (MA). Both events have occurred on the same day 27 times with a minimal loss of 0.33% and median loss of 5.99%. Historically the stock has crossed below the 50 day MA 144 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 3.802%. Historically the stock has crossed below the 100 day MA 105 times resulting in a minimal loss of 0.327% and a median loss of 5.460%. The maximum loss for all three instances is 44.146% and all information regards the next 10 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 39.7048. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending down.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 2.7816. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is slightly moving up but could reverse based on all other indicators.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0468. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock was moving up, but has begun to retreat and the negative is moving upward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 63.3372 and D value is 74.8670. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is moving down. This indicator has been floating above the oversold level for a while. Continued downward price action is warranted.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 4% over the next 10 trading days. The stock is also in a downward wedge and near the apex. The stock is due to breakout of the wedge and this trip to the resistance level around 96.60 could lead to a significantly lower drop. Considering the stock has always dropped when it crosses below the 100 day MA and when the 50 and 100 MA occur on the same date, a drop should occur quickly.
DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I may enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.