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Bears Are Out For MetLife

Published May 2, 2017
3:37 AM

On April 28, 2017, the MetLife (MET) 20 day moving average (DMA) crossed below its 150 day moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 24 times and the stock drops a minimum of 1.184%. The median drop is 3.894% and maximum drop is 10.709 % over the next 12 trading days.



METLIFE INC Chart From TradingView.com

When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 48.2268. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock has been neutral but also trending down since the election last November.

The true strength index (TSI) is currently -9.0016. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down for most of 2017.

The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.8072 and the negative is at 0.9669. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down but with both indicators below 1, anything can happen.

The stochastic oscillator K value is 53.4444 and D value is 54.8659. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock did not make it to overbought territory before recently reversing downward. The highs reached for the stochastic have been trending lower since the election, so a reversal at the current level is very possible.

Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be pointing down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 2.23% if not more over the next 12 trading days.

DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I do not plan to enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.

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