Intel Corp (INTC) Could Drop 33% Soon
Published January 22, 2018
By: Chris Guthrie
Intel Corporation (INTC) has been in a well-defined Grand Supercycle Elliott Wave since 1996. All of the major waves and almost every single minor wave have been noticeable and predictable. Right now the stock is in the treasured third wave of Grand Supercycle. Even though this is the wave that tends to make wave theory investors the most money, the stock is set for a corrective wave before continuing upward again. At present, a short- to intermediate-term drop is expected through the June 2019. All projections in this article will be updated and refined as each minor wave ends. The image below lays out where the stock has been and where it is intended to go.
Our following projections use the terminology and symbology from this chart
Grand Supercycle Wave
The stock is currently in the middle of wave 3 of the Grand Supercycle. We project the stock to reach 78.00 by 2022-2023. A rise to this level would be 70.4% gain from where it stands mid-day today. Wave 4 would be official once the stock will moves downward after its climb above 78.00.
The Supercycle in the third wave of the current Grand Supercycle has just begun wave 4. This is a corrective wave that will take the stock down over the next 8-17 months. The stock is expected to move below 36.00 and possibly below 30.00 by the end of this fourth wave. This would be a 33% loss for the stock within the next 17 months. After the bottom is found, the stock should climb toward 78.00 over the following three years which would be a 160% gain.
Cycle wave A in the current Supercycle has just began and will ultimately take the stock down over the next 17 months. The next stop on this journey is below the 41.00 mark by the end of February 2018. The main direction will be down, but corrective waves (B & D) will take the stock briefly up over the next 17 months.
Primary wave 4 in the current Cycle wave is due to end within the next day. Wave 5 will begin before the end of this week and should take the stock below 41.00 by the end of February. The next Primary wave will be broken down once wave 5 has ended.
Finding Cycle Wave A
Attempting to predict the end of Cycle wave A and Primary Wave 5 is relatively simple. The image below has boxed in the most likely location for the bottom of Cycle wave A (identified with cyan dot). The outermost lines bounding the box are composed of averages, medians, standard deviations of movements and trading days elapsed.
Over the course of this Grand Supercycle there have been 5 completed impulsive Cycle wave As and 12 Wave 1s. I normally use Fibonacci retracements and extensions, but none commonly exist on the first impulsive wave. Instead I have relied on movement measures. On these occasions, the average movement in the stock during the first wave in a Cycle wave was 9.15 points. When adding and subtracting the standard deviation of these movements (4.64) to the top and bottom of this mark, levels 4.51 and 13.79 are recorded. Lastly, the median movement is 7.27. This will give us 4 levels of interest: 43.13, 40.37, 38.49, and 33.85.
The final pieces of information regard trading days elapsed over the course of this Grand Supercycle. The median days elapsed are 9 with an average of 43. The standard deviation is 77. Applying the standard deviation on the low-side of the average would result in a negative number so it is ignored. When added to the average, the result is 120 days. This gives us 3 dates of interest: January 4, February 22, and June 11.
We are leaning for the bottom of Wave A to occur around February 20 around 40.45.
Finding Supercycle Wave 4
Even though Wave 4 has just begun, its never too late to find the end. Even though there has only been one other Supercycle 4 in this current Grand Cycle, I have collected data from other Elliott Waves and will apply it to find potential bottoms. The average retracement for a Supercycle Wave 4 is 50.35% of the prior Wave 3. A retracement can be determined by calculating the movement in wave 3. Plot the location where wave 3 began as 100% and the location where wave 3 ended as 0%. The retracement is the distance down from the end of wave 3. I like to look for retracements between the two Fibonacci points of 23.6% and 61.8%. We also get 31.84% and 68.87% by adding and subtracting the standard deviation (18.52%) to the average. The last retracement of interest is the median (50.09%). A key Fibonacci number of 50% has occurred twice in these results. These retracements provide us 4 points of interest; 36.31, 29.81, 29.72, and 23.13.
By using the same data, three dates of interests exist for the potential end for Wave 4. These dates are June 2019, September 2020, and October 2023. For now, we anticipate the bottom to occur in the summer of 2020 around 30.00.
All current projections are displayed on the interactive chart below
Continue to check back as we ride the waves to the end of the Grand Supercycle. This article will be updated as new minor waves are completed until the Grand Supercycle has finished its Wave 5.
DISCLOSURE: We currently do not have any positions in the mentioned stock. We may initiate a position in the next 72 hours. This article is for reference only and should not be solely relied on to predict future movement. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. You should not take a risk without fully understanding the system, market, and having established trading discipline. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace. The author and Limitless Life Skills LLC do not have a financial relationship with the companies mentioned in this article and all expressed views are that of the author.