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Bearish MA Cross For Intel

Published April 8, 2017
7:12 PM

On April 7, 2017, the Intel Corporation (INTC) crossed below its 100 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 241 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 4.249% and a maximum loss of 34.757% over the next 10 trading days.



Intel Corporation Chart From TradingView.com

When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 54.9964. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral, with no clear volatile price swing on the horizon.

The true strength index (TSI) is currently -4.9091. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current direction declares the stock is moving up.

The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1026. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is steadily moving down while the negative indicator is moving up and cementing this sentiment.

The stochastic oscillator K value is 66.3386 and D value is 71.8470. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock just came out of an overbought level and should continue to move down.

Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1.76% over the next 10 trading days. Of the previous four times the stock has crossed below the 100 day MA, it has had a minimal drop of 1.191%.

DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I most likely will not enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.

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