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Short-Term Drop For BMY?

Published April 16, 2017
10:39 PM

On April 13, 2017, the Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) 20 day moving average (DMA) crossed below the 50 and 150 DMA. Both events have never occurred before on the same day. Historically 20 has crossed below the 50 DMA 129 times, and the 20 has crossed below the 150 DMA 53 times. For all of these instances, the stock does not always drop over the following 13 trading days. The cross below the 50 has a median loss of 3.056% and a maximum loss of 24.308% while the cross below the 150 has a median loss of 4.490% and a maximum loss of 35.795%.



BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO Chart From TradingView.com

When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 32.6329. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.

The true strength index (TSI) is currently -10.3049. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.

The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.7249 while the negative is at 1.2883. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is still moving downward.

The stochastic oscillator K value is 14.0765 and D value is 16.5090. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value, price action is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is stuck in oversold territory and it has been since March 24. This indicates the stock should move up soon or price action will decrease.

Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to continue heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could drop another 5% over the next 13 trading days.

DISCLOSURE: I currently do not have positions in the stock mentioned above. I most likely will not enter a position within the next 72 hours. Historical movements and technical indicators should never be the sole basis for entering positions involving risk. Make sure appropriate research is conducted prior to taking any risk in a marketplace.

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